Peter's stats stuffI write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical products and the code that produced them.
http://ellisp.github.io
Seasonality of plaguesPlaying around with polishing graphics, including an animation, of the seasonality of plague deaths in medieval Europe, early modern Europe, and nineteenth century India and China.Sun, 19 Nov 2017 00:00:00 +1300
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/11/19/plague-seasonality
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/11/19/plague-seasonalityNew Zealand fatal traffic crashesI explore half a million rows of disaggregated crash data for New Zealand, and along the way illustrate geo-spatial projections, maps, forecasting with ensembles of methods, a state space model for change over time, and a generalized linear model for understanding interactions in a three-way cross tab.Sun, 15 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +1300
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/10/15/traffic-crashes
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/10/15/traffic-crashesNew Zealand 2017 election resultsNew Zealand's election results have been released and were within the range of my probabilistic predictions. The pollsters did a good job.Sat, 07 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +1300
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/10/07/election-results
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/10/07/election-resultsnzelect 0.4.0 on CRAN with results from 2002 to 2014 and polls up to September 2017A new version of the nzelect R package is on CRAN, with election results by voting location back to 2002, and polls up to the latest election. I show how to extract and understand the "special" votes and how they are different to advance voting.Thu, 05 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +1300
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/10/05/nzelect-0-4-0
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/10/05/nzelect-0-4-0Time-varying house effects in New Zealand political pollsI adjust my state-space model of New Zealand voting behaviour to allow for the house effect of one of the pollsters to change from the time they started including an on-line sample, and get some interesting results.Sat, 16 Sep 2017 00:00:00 +1200
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/09/16/time-varying-house-effects
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/09/16/time-varying-house-effectsR Markdown for documents with logos, watermarks, and corporate stylesI outline how I structure analytical project folder systems and some hints for matching R Markdown documents to a corporate style guide including adding logos, watermarks, and of course colours and fonts.Sat, 09 Sep 2017 00:00:00 +1200
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/09/09/rmarkdown
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/09/09/rmarkdownThe long view on New Zealand political pollsNew Zealand electoral polls going back 15 yearsSat, 09 Sep 2017 00:00:00 +1200
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/09/09/nzpolls-again
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/09/09/nzpolls-againMore things with the New Zealand Election StudyI introduce a new web app that allows nons-specialists to explore voting behaviour in the New Zealand Election Study, and reflect on what I've done so far with that data.Sun, 20 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +1200
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/08/20/nzes-so-far
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/08/20/nzes-so-farEstimating Gini coefficient when we only have mean income by decileCalculating the Gini coefficient for inequality directly of mean income by decile produces a slightly biased downwards estimate. I correct for this and demonstrate on the World Panel Income Distribution data.Sat, 19 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +1200
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/08/19/quantiles-gini
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/08/19/quantiles-giniSampling distribution of weighted Gini coefficientI play around with the sampling distribution of Gini coefficients calculated with weighted data; and verify that the Gini calculation method in a recent Stats NZ working paper is the one in the acid R package.Sat, 05 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +1200
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/08/05/weighted-gini
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2017/08/05/weighted-gini